Sea level rise projections 2050
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Global Mean Sea Level Rise Projections for 2050
Recent research using satellite observations and empirical models estimates that global mean sea level (GMSL) will rise by about 16.4 cm by 2050 compared to 2020, with a likely range between 11.3 cm and 21.4 cm. These projections are consistent with the latest assessments from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and highlight the value of short-term, observation-driven extrapolations for near-future predictions Nerem2022Horton2018.
Contributions from Ice Sheets: Antarctic and Greenland
The melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets is a major driver of sea level rise. Empirical projections suggest that between 2021 and 2050, the Antarctic Ice Sheet could contribute 6–19 mm and the Greenland Ice Sheet 15–31 mm to global sea level rise. These changes are based on observed trends and future climate model data, and they also indicate that regional variations will occur, with some lower latitude regions—where many major cities are located—experiencing more pronounced sea level increases due to gravitational and geoid effects .
High-End and Regional Scenarios
High-end scenarios, which consider unlikely but possible extreme outcomes, show that by 2050, most regions will experience sea level rise similar to the global mean. However, local factors such as historical ice sheet presence and land subsidence can cause significant regional differences. For example, some areas may see much higher or lower sea level rise than the global average, and cities in Southeast Asia may face even greater risks due to coastal subsidence Dayan2021Ohenhen2024.
Local Factors: Vertical Land Motion and Coastal Subsidence
Local vertical land motion (VLM), including both uplift and subsidence, can significantly alter relative sea level projections. In some US cities, such as San Francisco and Los Angeles, local subsidence could more than double the expected sea level rise by 2050 compared to regional estimates. In certain areas, uncertainties in VLM could add up to 0.4 meters to projections, emphasizing the need to include local land motion in sea level rise assessments Govorcin2025Ohenhen2024.
Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Flood Risk
Sea level rise will increase the risk of coastal flooding and threaten critical infrastructure. For example, in southeast Texas, projections for 2050 range from 0.17 m (low scenario) to 0.54 m (medium to high scenario), with significant increases in inundated land and submerged roadways expected. Globally, rising extreme sea levels (ESLs) mean that by 2050, many tropical regions will face annual flood risks equivalent to today’s 100-year events, putting millions of people and properties at risk Amer2024Vousdoukas2018Ohenhen2024.
Uncertainties and the Need for Adaptation
While projections for 2050 are becoming more precise, uncertainties remain, especially regarding ice sheet dynamics and local land motion. These uncertainties highlight the importance of adaptive planning and the need for improved monitoring and modeling to inform coastal management and reduce future risks Palmer2024Turner2023.
Conclusion
By 2050, global mean sea level is projected to rise by about 16 cm, with regional and local variations influenced by ice sheet melt, land motion, and other factors. Many coastal areas, especially in the tropics and subsiding cities, will face increased flood risks and infrastructure challenges. Accurate, locally informed projections are essential for effective adaptation and resilience planning in the face of ongoing sea level rise Nerem2022Lee2023Dayan2021+5 MORE.
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Most relevant research papers on this topic
Empirical projection of global sea level in 2050 driven by Antarctic and Greenland ice mass variations
From 2021 to 2050, global sea level rise due to Antarctic and Greenland ice mass variations ranges between 6-19 mm and 15-31 mm, with more pronounced rises in lower latitude regions.
High-End Scenarios of Sea-Level Rise for Coastal Risk-Averse Stakeholders
High-end sea-level scenarios show that global mean-sea level may reach 1.06(1.91) m by 2100, with regional sea-level rise potentially being substantially lower or higher than global mean-sea level.
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