Black hole impact risk to earth
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Primordial Black Holes and Earth Impact Risk
Primordial black holes (PBHs) are hypothetical objects that may have formed in the early universe and could make up a portion of dark matter. Studies have calculated the probability of a PBH colliding with Earth, considering their possible distribution in the Milky Way's dark matter halo and disc. If such a collision were to occur, it could heat Earth's interior through processes like dynamical friction and accretion. However, the calculated collision rate is extremely low, and the overall danger from PBH impacts is much less than that posed by asteroid impacts on Earth .
Black Holes from Particle Colliders and TeV-Scale Black Holes
There has been public concern about the possibility of creating small, stable black holes in high-energy particle colliders like the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Detailed scientific analyses have shown that even if such black holes were produced and became trapped inside Earth, their growth would be so slow that they would not pose any risk within the Earth's or Sun's natural lifetimes. These conclusions are supported by astrophysical observations, such as the continued existence of dense objects like white dwarfs and neutron stars, which would have been destroyed if such black holes posed a real threat .
Alternative Views and Theoretical Risks
Some researchers have argued that certain theoretical models could allow for black holes that accrete matter at a rate that might be dangerous, especially if they emit harmful radiation. These scenarios, however, are based on specific and less widely accepted models, and the mainstream scientific consensus remains that the risk is negligible. Suggestions have been made for operational safety measures at colliders to further reduce any remaining risk, even if it is already extremely low .
Catastrophic Risk Scenarios and Scientific Debate
A minority of researchers have raised concerns about the possibility of small black holes growing rapidly inside Earth, potentially leading to catastrophic outcomes. These arguments often rely on unconventional interpretations of black hole physics and are not widely accepted in the scientific community. The mainstream view, based on established physical laws and astronomical evidence, is that such scenarios are not supported .
Public Concern and Scientific Consensus
While the idea of a black hole striking Earth or being created in a laboratory is a popular topic in science fiction, scientific studies consistently find no legitimate cause for concern. The probability of a naturally occurring black hole impacting Earth is extremely low, and the risks from human-made black holes are even lower, given current understanding and observational evidence Randall2022Giddings2008.
Conclusion
Current research shows that the risk of a black hole—whether primordial or artificially created—posing a threat to Earth is extremely small. The probability of a collision is far less than that of more familiar hazards like asteroid impacts, and the scientific consensus is that there is no significant danger from black holes to our planet Rahvar2021Randall2022Giddings2008.
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Most relevant research papers on this topic
On the potential catastrophic risk from metastable quantum-black holes produced at particle colliders
The production of subnuclear black holes at particle colliders could potentially pose a catastrophic risk, causing harmful Hawking radiation to Earth and CERN.
Impact Risk Estimation and Assessment Scales
This chapter outlines the current state of assessment of impact risk from near-Earth objects, addressing the "Yarkovsky effect" and "keyholes" in predicting impact risks, and highlighting the importance of mapping keyholes for deflection planning.
DOI