Atmospheric temperature trends
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Tropospheric and Stratospheric Temperature Trends
Multiple observational records and reanalysis datasets show a clear pattern: the troposphere has warmed while the stratosphere has cooled over recent decades. Specifically, from 1979 to 2018, the troposphere warmed by about 0.6–0.8 K, while the stratosphere cooled by about 1–3 K. These trends are consistent across satellite, radiosonde, and radio occultation measurements, with amplified warming in the tropical upper troposphere compared to surface trends, aligning with theoretical expectations Steiner2020Essa2022. Satellite-based datasets indicate near-global tropospheric warming trends of +0.07 to +0.13°C per decade since 1979, with tropical trends slightly higher, though these are lower than some climate model projections .
Middle and Upper Atmosphere Temperature Changes
Long-term records from rocket soundings and ground-based measurements reveal significant cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere. At altitudes of 30–40 km, cooling is a few degrees Kelvin, increasing to about 10 K at 50 km and 20 K at 60–70 km. The mesopause region (~87 km) has cooled by about 30 K since the late 1950s. This cooling is consistent with increased greenhouse gas concentrations and changes in atmospheric chemistry . Climate model simulations and satellite observations confirm these trends, showing that the vertical profile of temperature trends remains a key indicator of global climate change .
Influence of Ozone and Greenhouse Gases
The cooling of the stratosphere and mesosphere is linked to both rising greenhouse gases and changes in ozone concentrations. The recovery of stratospheric ozone since the late 1990s, following the Montreal Protocol, has led to a reduction in ozone-induced cooling, resulting in weaker stratospheric cooling trends in recent years compared to the period of intensive ozone depletion Garcia2019Maycock2018. This shift is evident in both model simulations and updated satellite records, which now show better agreement than earlier versions .
Regional and Seasonal Variability in Temperature Trends
Reanalysis datasets and observational records show that temperature trends vary by region and season. While annual mean temperature trends are only slightly affected by changes in atmospheric circulation in most areas, circulation has a more substantial impact on seasonal and monthly temperature trends, especially in regions like western Siberia, central Europe, and the Arctic . In North America, internal atmospheric circulation trends account for about one-third of the observed winter warming over the past 50 years . Changes in the frequency and persistence of regional circulation patterns have also contributed to the occurrence of extreme temperature events in mid-latitude regions .
Apparent vs. Air Temperature Trends
Studies comparing air temperature with apparent temperature (which includes wind speed and humidity) show that both parameters generally trend upward, especially during winter and summer. However, apparent temperature trends can differ from air temperature trends during other seasons, highlighting the importance of considering multiple factors when assessing climate impacts on human comfort .
Conclusion
Atmospheric temperature trends over recent decades are characterized by robust tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, with even stronger cooling observed higher in the atmosphere. These trends are consistent across multiple observational and modeling approaches and are influenced by greenhouse gas increases and ozone changes. Regional and seasonal variations are shaped by atmospheric circulation patterns, and the distinction between air and apparent temperature trends underscores the complexity of climate change impacts. Overall, the vertical and regional patterns of atmospheric temperature change remain critical indicators of ongoing global climate change.
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Most relevant research papers on this topic
Observed Temperature Changes in the Troposphere and Stratosphere from 1979 to 2018
A robust cooling of the stratosphere and a warming of the troposphere have been observed from 1979 to 2018, with consistent results across various observational systems.
Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends
Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns partially explain observed trends in surface temperature extremes in mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere.
Intercomparison of Atmospheric Upper-Air Temperature From Recent Global Reanalysis Datasets
All four global atmospheric reanalysis products show consistent upper-air temperature trends, with ERA5 showing the smallest temperature differences compared to radiosonde records.
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